ITC - FMCG + Hotels - Time to Light Up the Cigarette ?

Analysts are now making investment case for Cigarette and FMCG Major - ITC Ltd. ITC's earnings growth has been remarkably stable despite tax increases and regulatory restrictions, reflecting its strong pricing power. ITC's CAGR was 18.4% over the past decade and average variance was only 3ppts. The new smoking ban appears to have had little effect and we do not expect it to have much impact in the medium term.

Volume growth of approximately 20% in filter cigarettes in 1HFY09 is encouraging and expect a 15% Cagr in the cigarette business Ebit over FY08-11.

Non-Cigarette Business:
While there has been concern over the need for a cash infusion into the non cigarette businesses, only 12% of post-tax cash generated by the cigarette division over the past seven years has been used for non-cigarette expansion. The paperboard unit is coming out of its capex cycle and the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) division's losses likely to shrink in 2HFY09. However, cyclical pressure will remain on the Hotels business.

According to CLSA here is the Sum of the Parts Valuation for ITC
Cigarettes - Rs 178 (19x PE, 20% discount to HUL)
FMCG - Rs 17
Agribusiness - Rs 3
Paperboard Rs 12
Hotels - Rs 12
Cash - Rs 6
Total Rs 225 is the Target price. ITC is expected to report an EPS of Rs 9.1 for FY09 and Rs 10.3 for FY10.

What's Holding India + What will Boost It ?

During the past five years (F2003-2008), India has received cumulative inflows of US$224 billion. This serviced India’s biggest ever credit and capital spending cycle. India's outstanding credit grew from US$189 billion in March 2003 to US$643 billion by March 2008. Over that time, the country spent US$1.4 trillion on investment. It's no surprise that growth accelerated and averaged nearly 9% during this period.

India's infrastructure was not ready for this growth, and combined with the surge in global commodity prices (again reflecting unprecedented global growth for mostly the same reasons), inflation surged - a classic case of overheating. Of course, the Central Bank took prompt action, but it has left us with a cyclical slowdown in growth. If capital flows recede, a natural outcome of the ongoing global crises, India’s growth will hurt further.

During the same period, the BSE Sensex constituents on aggregate, have grown earnings fivefold in five years from Rs247 billion to Rs1,215 billion. If earnings fall in the coming quarters, it should surprise nobody. Morgan Stanley expects broad market earnings to decline by 10%-15% in F2010 and ROE to decline in the coming 18 months. India still trades at a premium of 25% to emerging markets.

What will be a Big Booster to the Market:
Global Economic Crisis should Calm down.
Credit growth needs to go below deposit growth for a sustained period so that banks' balance sheets become more liquid.
Infrastructure Spending: The government will need to boost infrastructure spending and also cut tax rates. This cannot be funded using public debt and hence as corollary government will need to privatize assets or raise multi-lateral agency loans.
Election Verdit - India should avoid a fractured verdict.

Morgan expects earnings to grow 2% in FY09 and fall by 10% in FY201